Sandy Ericson's Inbox
Bill Hocker | Mar 3, 2015
Sandy Ericson of the SHWindow just sent one of her email blasts with some significant feedback to a previous one. I can't yet link to her emails so I'll just copy the interesting bits here:
Rex Stults forwards: "It's actually 85% [NV grapes in the bottle]. And it's monitored by TTB [US Treasury Dept.], not the county. And nobody does more to ensure compliance therein than NVV. Our lawyer and I were in DC last week working on all this. It's a federal reg that applies to all 200+ American Viticultural Areas, including Napa Valley and its 16 sub appellations (St. Helena, Howell Mountain, etc.). In order to put those place names on labels minimum 85% of the fruit must be grown within its boundary. Highly regulated."
(More than I thought but great to know it's watched -- still makes me wonder where all these grapes are going to grow, given all the wineries starting up and expanding?)
And from George Caloyannidis, a Calistoga USC prof who teaches architecture and studies growth:
"1) What is the true cost of further growth? Are we using the right formula to assess it? Are we charging the right fees?
2) What is the true cost of the continued accommodation/proliferation of low-paying jobs coupled with the lack of well-paying jobs? (Makes me wonder why these questions are not on any agendas?)
3) All structures/patterns, whether in biology or cities collapse when their weakest link collapses. In Napa, if it will not be water first. It certainly will be traffic as the data below shows. Well before 2050, the existing traffic system will collapse. According to the latest traffic study, the largest contributor to congestion is commuter traffic. That again is linked to the lack of "Workforce" housing. "Affordable" housing presents problems because it relies on government grants. Such grants spread the cost to the public while the developer reaps the profit and by law, grant-financed housing must be open to everyone in the State, not just locals.
GROWTH PROJECTION DATA: A growth of 45% in traffic is forecast or nearly half again as much as we see currently. This does not include people commuting out of the County, which number less than the in-commuters. These calculations assume high end projections, which of course, assume continuing growth in the Napa wine/tourism industry, which in turn, does seem generally supportable under current conditions -- the market is certainly growing worldwide. Here is the background for the 45% traffic increase calculation, a combination of 3 primary sources:
1. If current patterns hold (30% of Napa workers commuting from outside the County per US Census Journey to Work data 2006-2010: Residence County to Workplace County Flows for the United States and Puerto Rico Sorted by Residence Geography: 2006-2010.
2. If we do see employment levels reach towards 97,000 workers:
Current employment level is 82,000 -- this is peak level during crush, per State of California Employment Development Division.
Plus 15,000 additional jobs by 2040 per ABAG, Association of Bay Area Governments, Plan Bay Area Projections 2013. These projections are generally available for purchase. On their site, go to Napa Tab and see "Total Jobs" projections to 2040.
It is conceivable that we may expect 29,000 workers commuting into Napa County each day by 2040."
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