First, the loss of a community. Hotels not only bring in more tourists, but they increase the 24-hour tourist population. At some point, as the ratio of tourists to residents increases, and as jobs, commercial activity and housing continue to shift from resident-serving to tourist-serving, the sense of normal, small-town community life will be lost to the collective endevour of catering to, and being the local color for, the tourism experience. And the real town and its community will disappear.
Second, a financing dependency. TOT revenue and other in-lieu fees are welcomed as a quick fix for the deferred infrastructure and service costs needed to mitigate the impacts of previous urban development. But low wage jobs are created by the hundreds and the money isn't there for affordable housing. Traffic and parking problems explode. The increased tourism and employee population require additional infrastructure and services which then encourage more new project approvals and so on. Ultimately the place becomes a dense tourist trap, devoid of residents, and, much like Oxbow is now, packed with people wondering what's so special about Napa.
Third, the loss of Napa's rural soul. The number of hotel projects, like the amount of traffic, is a symptom of a community losing it's resitance to development pressure. That pressure was was contained in Napa for the last 40 years by a combination of politicians and citizenry with a clear vision of an un-urbanized future, and an industry dependent on an agricultural product. But as the landscape and vineyards are slowly filled with buildings to exploit the expanding tourist population, the vision of a rural enclave in the urban Bay Area is harder for politicians and their citizens to imagine, and the industry is finding that more money is to be made by providing wine-related experiences than from making wine. The importance of agriculture fades beyond its use as a stageset for TOT-paying visitors..
Update: 6/17/17A neighbor just sent over a link to the latest Napa Life, Paul Fransons's weekly "insiders guide to the Napa Valley." The June 19th, 2017 issue is here. Scroll down to the section on "Lodging News". Below the summaries of the latest hotel projects in the Register he has a list of the projects currently in the approval and proposal pipelines. While I struggle to keep up on this site, as an insider he has a much better handle on these things. And it is a bit freightening.
Most freightening of all is the mention of a Ted Hall 80 room hotel in South St Helena (described in this 2015 NVR article). Ted Hall (recent profile here) is perhaps the most revered grower-vintner in the county, one of the few statesman in an industry filled with entrepreneurs. Each trip to the planning commission to present his winery projects turns into a lovefest (just as the hotel project did). He will probabaly make the most sensitive, ecological integration of agriculture and overnight accommodation it is possible to make. And he will set the precident for lesser lights to follow for the next phase of the "wine" industry in its transition to an entertainment industry. Now that the winery restaurant is firmly established as an acceptable "incidental and subordinate" use allowed at wineries, it is only a matter of time before the winery b&b begins to make its way into the definition of "agriculture" as well. A euphanism will have to be invented - "immersive agricultural experience" perhaps - to make sure no one would mistake a winery for a hotel. But with the precedent set by this most solid citizen of the County, every good-life entrepreneur will now want a hotel-of-their-own to go along with their winery.
In the Times article Napa Vision 2050 is recognized nationally for its efforts to slow the urbanization of Napa County. Kudos to Harris Nussbaum and Patricia Damery. Jim Wilson on the Napa Vision 2050 Economic ForumIt's exactly the effect we heard is coming at George Caloyannidis' Tourism Economy Forum in April of last year:
Tourism accelerates the polarization between the population and the very wealthy.
Polarization begins when businesses begin to cater to tourists and affluent locals at the expense of townsfolk.
Now a major social revolution: small group of elderly people and few young people.
Q: Whose town is this anyway? What can community do so the power doesnít get concentrated in the hands of a few?
A: There are a few only. Locals are usually the last to get a voice in tourism development. Usually money does the talking. Local leaders who are wise enough know that the local people need to be part of the process. Most people donít really know what their long-term needs are. Community groups need to have experience.
Know what theyíre doing, how to get things done, like NV2050. Itís what attracted me to this event in Napa. Hospitality is about cheap labor. Tourism is about value added.
Q: Local schools close and students are sent out of town?
A: Imbalance. Older population crowds out the younger people. Mis-managed tourism.. Petersborough losing its school system,, and its vertical, complete society. Declining school enrollment is a sign that either young adults donít want to have children, or they donít see a future in the town.
Q: How do you organize the population?
A: NV2050 is a great example. Youíre anxious over the future, youíre organizing through people who can organize, and have the time and abilty to see things through. Then expand! Itís bottom up. Top down is very rare.
Q: How do you recommend citizens get involved in decisions on smart tourism?
A: Mendlinger: What is motivation for County and City political leaders to get involved? Do they want more development or a higher quality of life for citizens? If interested in business they wonít listen. But if you have wise leadership youíll do the part of the job that improves the quality of life. Especially in Napa you have a great pool of experience and wisdom. Itís cosmopolitan not provincial. Political leadership has to listen to well-organized citizens who understand how real life works. Citizens can go far. Like this meeting where you have political leadership plus informed citizens. I traveled fro Boston to see how Napa is doing, and I am encouraged by the possibilities. Rural areas - resource extraction areas Ė when industry pulls out thereís not much reason for community to be there.
Q: Advice on blasting open ďiron triangleĒ government/agencies/industry?
A: Mendlinger; How to develop experienced and wise leaders and citizens is the question. I just donít know how.
In an economic impact study, costs are just as important as revenues.
Too much tourism can overwhelm a community.
Impact studies usually tout all the benefits of a development. Fiscal impacts are often overlooked and no multipliers are used.
The reports that go out make the development look great but itís not. Thereís no balanced perspective with costs to the community.